Wonders never cease in the bank treasury world, what with earthquakes in the metro NYC area to eclipses of the sun, but surely the sudden flattening of the yield curve this month, which is now half as inverted as it was last month, must stir the imagination of even the most experienced bank treasurer.

On the first anniversary of the crisis last March, this month’s newsletter looks at lessons learned. One of those lessons is to beware of lessons learned, especially when they are based on “flawed, post-mortem reviews.”

How is artificial intelligence changing the banking industry? Will bank analysts be replaced by A.I.? And is that a bad thing? A former Credit Suisse analyst and a veteran European bank expert weigh in.

This month’s newsletter discusses how bank treasurers restructured their underwater bond portfolios last quarter when the 10-year rallied in November and December. It also explains why bank treasurers, most of whom believe they have more to fear from the Fed cutting rates by 300 basis points than raising them, are more hedged for higher rates going into 2024 than they were going into 2023.

Ethan talks to privacy experts about the value of personal information and what banks need to do to protect their employee and customer data given escalating risks in the cyber-security space.

There are a lot of strange things going on in the bank treasury world, and as always, bank treasurers know to prepare for anything. You have a yield curve that is inverted for the longest time in decades, and where the marginal cost to fund a loan makes it difficult to lend profitably. You have high interest rate volatility as reflected in the MOVE index that, like the inverted yield curve, has persisted for a very long time. None of these things are good for the bank treasury business. But, on the bright side, if you have cash to invest, an overnight risk- free rate from the Fed still cannot be beat, and if you are paid to do nothing, do nothing.

Sam Theodore, a veteran European bank analyst, reflects on what to expect from the unexpected both in the US and in the Eurozone.

In this age of heightened uncertainty, bank treasurers are reviewing and updating their ALM toolkits. Join me for a conversation with Michael Riddle and Geoffrey Sharp to find out how ERIS SOFR Swap Futures offers users the sophistication of an interest rate swap with the simplicity of a futures contract.

Join me for a discussion with Moorad Choudhry, Author of The Principles of Banking, on his takeaways from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and First Republic, and what he has learned from his study of U.K. banking that bank treasurers in the States should consider as they seek to shore up their interest rate and liquidity risk management.